A collapse in tax revenue triggered by the ongoing worldwide financial and economic meltdown put a heavy question mark over Bulgaria’s 2009 budget.
The problem was recongnised by both key units tasked to replenish the treasury – the National Revenue Agency and the Customs Agency.
Value-added tax revenue, which speaks for the biggest portion of 47% of the total, threatened to sink deep below the target.
Customes Agency executive director Hristo Kulishev said in his annual report on Monday that imports have marked a steep drop since the year’s start to levels of a few years ago, and January’s VAT revenue are seen coming BGN 100 million short of the target.
Experts of the agency said it will be seen by the end of February if revenue will start to recover or fall further.
If January’s pace continues, full-year VAT revenue may be BGN 1.2 billion less than planned.
For comparison, the sales tax generated BGN 4.03 billion out of 2008’s total indirect tax revenue of almost BGN 7.5 billion, under preliminary data.
Corporate taxes and taxes for physical entities will also show disappointing data at the end of the first quarter, forecast a source of the agency speaking on condition of anonymity.
Although grim data continues to stream in, the budget will not be revised, the Finance Ministry told Dnevnik. But experts do not rule such an option after July’s general elections.
The current budget has two buffers worth a combined BGN billion against the effects of the global economic downturn. The budget surplus target is set at 3% of the expected gross domestic product, or BGN 2.19 billion.
The Government also cut down by 10% the planned non-interest ministry expenses saving BGN 2.9 billion.
Budget 2009 came under seething criticism, especially for what businesses, analysts and opposition called a far-fetched economic growth of 4.7%. The European Commission on Monday projected the growth pace will slow down to 1.8% but still the country will suffer much lesser consequences than most other EU newcomers and avert recession.
(Dnevnik)
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